Service Plays Thursday 12/11/08

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Nelly's Greensheet

<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->ALL TIMES ARE LISTED IN CENTRAL TIME AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Home teams listed in CAPS, lines are subject to change

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 11, 2008
CHICAGO (-3) New Orleans (45) 7:15 PM
The playoff hopes for these teams might appear slim but the
opportunities will be there for the winner of this game as many of the
other Wild Card contenders will face tougher closing schedules. The
Bears have gone 0-3 against the NFC South this season but the three
games were lost by a combined total of eight points. New Orleans has
now won three of the last four with covers in all four of those games.
Despite being a popular team with a bad defense that has
underachieved in terms of preseason projections, the Saints are
somehow 9-4 ATS on the year, but consider that three covers came by a
point or less. The Bears pass defense has not performed well and the
Saints should be able to play on. SAINTS BY 7

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Goldsheet

<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->THE GOLD SHEET

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 11
*CHICAGO 27 - New Orleans 20—Soldier Field has been a minefield the
L2Ys for N.O., which has lost both visits (including numbing 39-14 NFC title game in ‘06). Possible wintry conditions a lot different for Drew Brees, who has 19 TDs vs. 4 ints. at the Superdome, and 7 TDs vs. 10 ints. away. Depleted Saints defense might lose DE Will Smith to suspension (check status); the offense, Deuce McAllister. Advantage Chicago if Bears can establish solid RB Matt Forte (1081 YR; product of Tulane), opening play-action opportunities for Kyle Orton. TV—NFL NETWORK

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Pointwise Basketball Prophecy

<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->NBA Key Releases...
4--Dallas over Charlotte (12/11) 107-95

Best of the Rest...
12/11--none selected

NCAA Prophecy

Best of the Rest
12/11--Villanova

<!-- / message --><!-- / message -->

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

THE MAX
NFL

Sunday December 14h, 2008
@Bears (-3) over Saints
Selection and Analysis by Dave Fobare
Several weeks into the season I was forced (like a lot of handicappers) to acknowledge that Kyle Orton was establishing himself as a decent quarterback. Then Orton injured his ankle in a 27-23 win over Detroit and he hasn't been quite the same QB since. With the Bears' offense
averaging 6.0 yards per pass and giving up the same it would seem a good place to take a Saints team that is throwing for 8.0 yards per pass and giving up 6.8 and is installed as an underdog despite scoring better than 28 points per game and scoring under 20 just once this season. Let's delve a little deeper. In place of Kyle Orton backup Rex Grossman has eaten up 62 pass attempts and moved the team just 4.2 yards per
throw. That drop from Orton's 6.7 yards per attempt makes the Bears look worse than they really are. And behind rookie RB Matt Forte the Bears have a substantial edge in the running game, one that is worth about 3 points per game all by itself. Oddly enough my stats also record a
higher schedule strength for the Bears. The Saints are 7-6, yet they occupy the basement of the strong NFC South. And as usual the NFC North is several games below the 0.500 mark. But Chicago has faced some tough teams outside their division like Philadelphia and Tennessee,
while New Orleans has played 4 games against the weak AFC West. Add it all up and my stat model prefers the seemingly deficient Bears by about 5.5 points. The best general tech I have on this game is a negative
84-138 ATS system that isolates certain high scoring teams such as New Orleans likely to be public darlings. This system is 5-12 in 2008 including plays against both the Jets (lost 24-14 as -5) and Giants (lost 20-14 as -6) last weekend. With the Saints at 9-4 ATS and coming off 4
covers in a row it’s likely we'll be bucking the public here. And the Saints apply to a negative 77-135 ATS system that plays against winning teams with good spread records. This spot is already 5-10 on the season.
Here at the end of the writeup I'm supposed to have something pithy to say, but this week I just don't have it. The Saints just look like a typically overvalued high scoring team, and I'll take the still somewhat gimpy Kyle Orton and the Bears. Chicago by 10.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

THE PLATINUM SHEET

12/11/2008 (301) NEW ORLEANS at (302) CHICAGO
As horrific as my NFL best bets have been this season, and in particular
of late, sometimes you have to swallow your pride and take advice from
others more “in the know”. In this case, the “consultant” more in the know is my young son A.J., who put this New Orleans-Chicago game in simple perspective for me…”The Bears can’t stop Drew Brees”. Sometimes,
it’s that simple. As I thought about it more, he’s probably right. This isn’t
the dominant Bears’ defenses of past years. This group gives up 234
YPG passing. If you look back several years, they’ve never fared well
against prolific offenses anyhow: CHICAGO is 7-19 ATS (-13.9 Units)
versus excellent offensive teams - averaging >=6 yards/play since 1992. The average score was CHICAGO 15.7, OPPONENT 25.3 - (Rating = 1*). The StatFox Game Estimator calls for the Saints to put up 385
yards of offense and 28 points. Those are big numbers for an underdog and Chicago is 14-38 ATS when it allows between 22-28.
Play: New Orleans +3

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Marc Lawrence's Playbook


Thursday, December 11th
CHICAGO over New Orleans by 1

On the surface, a cold and blustery December night in Chicago does not
fi gure to serve the climate-controlled Saints well. That is, however, until our database kicks into the equation. The Bears looked to have the road paved to the playoffs by the schedule maker when he awarded them a pair of three-game homestands this season. Little did he realize that home teams in the 2nd of a 3-game regular season home stand struggle when playing off a SU and ATS win and hosting a .500 or greater foe seeking revenge (Chicago has beaten New Orleans three straight times, including a seasonender that cost them a .500 record last year and a playoff loss here in 2006). That’s because these weighty hosts are just 1-7 SU and 0-8 ATS in this role since 1980. And we’ll bet you didn’t know that NO team in the league has fared better than the Saints in the stat-wars this season where they are 10-2-1 ITS (In The Stats). Now there’s a bar bet you’ll win, hands down. Dome be damned… we’re feeling mighty saintly here tonight.

 

[Mr.BlueSky]

Rocco Spacamuro

100* New Orleans +3

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with the Nets (-9) Wednesday night.

Today it's the Saints. The deficit is 635 sirignanos.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Wild Bill

Bears-New Orleans Saints Over 44 1/2 (5 units)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dave Cokin

(505) PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS
(506) UTAH JAZZ
Take "(505) PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS"
Utah is always tough at home, but I think the Jazz might struggle tonight. Portland is off a home loss that had to really irritate the Blazers, as they coughed up a late lead to Orlando on Tuesday night and lost with just a tick left on the clock. Look for the Blazers to be revved up for this one, and Utah might still be without Carlos Boozer. I rarely recommend fading the Jazz at home, but I'll make the exception and back the Blazers tonight.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jim Feist

(501) BOSTON CELTICS
(502) WASHINGTON WIZARDS
Take "Under"
Washington is not the dynamite offensive team we've seen in recent years because of injuries. Even oddsmakers haven't adjusted, as the Wizards are on a 9-5-1 under the total. That struggling offense runs into the second best defensive team in the NBA here. Boston has won 12 in a row and allows 91 ppg and 41.5% shooting by opponents (tops). The Celtics have had 3 full days to rest, so they will have plenty of defensive energy and intensity available to keep the win streak going. Play the Celtics/Wizards under the total.

 

[JoeThePlumber]

Pointwise
THURSDAY
CHICAGO 30 - New Orleans 24 - (8:15 - NFL) -- Double revenger for the Saints,
who lost '06 Title Game to the Bears, 39-14, & again LY, 33-25. Thus, this is the
3rd straight series traveller for NewOrleans. Saints still in it (barely), behind Drew,
as well as Thomas & Bush, who posted 6.4 & 8.0 ypr efforts in escape vs Falcons.
Realize Saints are 6-1 ATS in non-division play, but can't ignore solid bounceback
effort of Bears in rout of Jags, including decent "D" for a change. The chalk has
covered last 5 Chicago games by 74 pts ATS, & the Bears are 14-6 ATS as Dec
HFs. Warm weather guests are at a distinct disadvantage, so a narrow Bear call.

 

[JoeThePlumber]

CKO
NINE-RATED GAME: CHICAGO (-3) vs. New Orleans (THURSDAY NIGHT)—

 

[printman19]

IC Research

Hitting over 65% this week

IC RESEARCH REPORT:

NBA

Thursday: Travel day in the NBA:

Boston vs. Washington

Note, that Antonio Daniels has been traded and that that this game is on TNT. It seems Washington is getting no respect here considering they have new coaching, they just beat the Pistons outright at home and they also beat the Nets outright on the road a couple of games ago as well. Note, that Washington has covered their last 5 straight. Boston comes off an OT win over the Pacers on the road as that game went well over. They lost the cover in that game and prior to that they had won 3 straight covers. These two teams have not met this year. I have around a 69% consensus on Boston here and I lean on Washington to hang tough, but more importantly on the over.

Charlotte vs. Dallas

Note, that Richardson is traded for Charlotte and Wallace is questionable. There is a big line in this game for Dallas. Why? Well, this team comes off the 2OT loss to the Spurs so obviously might have some bounce in their step. The Mavs have 70% of the backing here at home. They beat Charlotte 100-83 back on 11/18. Charlotte comes off getting blown out at New Orleans, but that was to be expected some what as that was a revenge game for NO. Josh Howard is out indefinitely for this game but it seems that little Juan B. has picked up some of the scoring as he dropped 20+ points in the last game against the Spurs. Charlotte has played the over in 4 of their last 5 contests.

Portland vs. Utah

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NFL:

New Orleans vs. Chicago

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NCAAB:


Troy vs. Middle Tennessee State

Note that the public is split on this game. This is actually a conference game and Middle Tennessee State has owned this team the last four times they have played covering all four such times including sweeping this team last year by winning by 6 and 23 points at home. Troy comes off a cover against Dayton where they lost by 17 points but did cover the 21 point spread. This team however lost by 37 points to LSU and that is frightening to say the least. Middle Tennessee State however only lost by 10 points to the highly potent Tennessee Volunteers and lost by just 8 points to Vandy as they ended up covering both games. Nevertheless, it is tough to lay this many a point especially considering this is a conference game and Troy has such a revenge angle from the past few years as well.

Fairfield vs. Fordham

Fairfield is 6-3, but note that Fordham has beat Fairfield the last four times they have played them in recent memory. In fact, the last time Fairfield beat this team was in 2001. I hate to lay this many points, but I have Fairfield as significantly the better team here and they have years of frustration to take out on Fordham from the losses of previous years. I can see Fairfield wining this game by DD and likely coevering.

St. Josephs vs. Villanova

Villanova comes off their first loss of the year and they draw St. Josephs here. St. Joe’s beat this team by 22 last year so Villanova undoubtedly remembers that game and loss. St. Josephs also comes off a nice 21 point win over Towson who Villanova beat by a similar score. I don’t lay this many points, but there are reasons why you could support both teams. If you support St. Josephs you have the fact that this team is playing on neutral footing and are catching around double-digits and of course only 35% of the public are backing them. If you like Villanova, you have the fact they come off their first loss of the year and lost to this team by 20+ points last year.

Idaho State vs. Wisconsin GB

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Southern Miss vs. Kansas State

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Long Beach State vs. Weber State
The public is split about evenly on this game. This is going to be a tight game all the way through. In particular, earlier this year when these two teams hooked up, Long Beach State beat this team at home in overtime. Plus, LB State comes off a tough loss at San Fran in overtime, but did cover big against Pepperdine and New Mexico. By the way, Weber State comes off a 30 point thumping at the hands of BYU so obviously they will be fired up for this game and will look to bounce-back against a team they have revenge against. Weber State is undefeated at home and they do have some bite because they lost by just a few points to Miami of Ohio earlier this year. I lean on Weber State slightly, but I’ll tell you what even though Weber State has revenge and comes off an ugly loss, it is tough to bet against a Long Beach State team coming off a loss.

Sacramento State vs. New Mexico State

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Tuesday's Comp Selection (6-4 Comp Run)

#509. Wisconsin-Milwaukee +14.5 (Thursday @ 7pm est).

There are no previous meetings between the two teams. Note, that the public is split in this game. Wisconsin-Milwaukee has clearly showed they have the potential to play sound basketball. After all, they did beat Wright State and Detroit in back to back games. Furthermore, it is not as if Wisconsin Milwaukee is intimidated by the bigger/better schools in the nation as this team played Wisconsin and Marquette earlier this year and lost by about 20 points each time. Both of those games were on the road. Miami of Ohio is obviously talented because they have beaten the likes of Temple on the road outright and even covered against Xavier. But, I still have Miami of Ohio ranked about 55 spots in my power rankings as compared to Wisconsin Milwaukee as I have Wisky losing by 9 here so this is significant enough for me to give it out as a comp selection. Obviously, Wisky is not intimidated as they have played tougher teams on the road such as top 25 Marquette and Wisconsin and despite Miami of Ohio being a great team and likely NCAA Tourney team, I like Wisky to lose by single-digits here. The Idaho State Bengals are 4-1 ATS when facing teams with a winning % above 60% meaning they are showing up against the better teams in the league. <!-- / message --><!-- sig -->

 

[polishrebel]

GMC- Miami -Ohio (HUGE), Weber State (HUGE)-NBA-Pass

 

[brady1983]

Larry's Thursday Night NFL 9* Game of Year

Larry looks to bounce back from an 'ugly' 0-3 BKB night and what better way than with this Thursday Night NFL 9* play? Larry's been 'MONEY' with his 'high-end' FB releases (9 and 10* plays) since Nov 1, going 14-6 (70%) and takes 'dead aim' tonight on the Saints/Bears game. You "don't want to get caught on the sidelines." Get it now!


Chicago Bears



I am heading out for the day. If he puts out any hoops plays, they will be posted but later tonight.

 

[polishrebel]

GMC- Bears and UNDER Total-thats it for tonite

GL to all

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Cappers Access


<TABLE width="90%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle bgColor=#0099cc>Sport</TD><TD align=middle bgColor=#0099cc>Favorite</TD><TD align=middle bgColor=#0099cc>Underdog</TD><TD align=middle bgColor=#0099cc>Line</TD><TD align=middle bgColor=#0099cc>Pick</TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>Thur (NFL)</TD><TD align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>Bears</TD><TD align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>Saints</TD><TD align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>3</TD><TD align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>Bears</TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>Thur (CBB)</TD><TD align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>Villanova</TD><TD align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>St Joseph's</TD><TD align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>9-</TD><TD align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>Villanova</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Insider Sports report

Portland/Utah over 192.5